​Free trade is faltering: What global mobility leaders need to know

Rising geopolitical tensions and a resurgence of economic nationalism are putting strain on the systems that once enabled smooth global trade and mobility. With new tariffs, stricter immigration controls, shifting tax rules, cross-border moves and workforce planning are becoming increasingly complex.

These challenges were front and centre at the recent Global HR Conference, where ECA was invited to lead a dedicated session on: What Happened to Free Trade? How Is Protectionism Impacting Mobility - And What Can You Do About It?” During this session, ECA’s Liam Brennan unpacked how the shifting trade environment is affecting mobility teams today, and what steps organisations can take to protect their people and plans.

The changing face of free trade

For over two centuries, laissez-faire economics - a belief in minimal trade barriers - has been the guiding principle of global commerce. But that consensus is breaking down.

Since January 20th, the U.S government has issued more than 120 executive orders, many of which address immigration and international trade policy. These actions are triggering retaliatory responses from the EU, China, and Australia, creating a volatile and unpredictable global trade environment.

The result is a world where every cross-border decision - whether it’s sending an employee abroad or investing in a new market - requires closer scrutiny and contingency planning.

The border becomes the battleground

Challenges at national borders are becoming more frequent and severe. Increasingly, organisations are reporting incidents such as:

• Employees being stopped, interrogated, or turned away at ports of entry
• Lengthy delays in processing US L1 and other visas
• Travel complications linked to nationality-based restrictions
• Heightened inspections of electronic devices and personal belongings

These are no longer isolated cases. Border controls have become more aggressive, and what was once routine business travel now demands careful preparation, legal foresight, and clear employee briefings.

Protectionism goes beyond immigration

The implications of protectionism extend well beyond immigration - taxation is also entering a period of significant flux. The U.S. government is increasingly asserting “tax sovereignty” over its multinationals, challenging EU-led digital services taxes and threatening penalties for companies perceived as acting against American interests.

These developments carry major consequences for:

• Global tax reporting and shadow payrolls
• Project investment decisions
• International cost modelling and ROI forecasts

Organisations that once benefited from cross-border tax efficiencies may now face duplicative taxation and more complex compliance requirements, making global operations costlier and more unpredictable.

A new challenge: Talent reluctance

Another key trend is the growing hesitancy among employees to accept international assignments. Political unrest, unpredictable border experiences, and concerns around social justice are prompting many to reconsider where - and whether - they’re willing to relocate.

Employers need to factor this shift into their talent strategies and succession planning. Without addressing employee reluctance proactively, even the most strategically critical assignments risk delay or failure.

Key recommendations for mobility teams

Now is the time for mobility professionals to lead - not just react - in this shifting environment. As trade policy becomes more politicised, the role of HR and mobility professionals is more important than ever. Here are our key takeaways:

1. Form cross-functional task forces

Organisations should not face these challenges in silos. Build task forces that bring together tax, legal, compliance, and HR to scenario-plan and create pivot strategies.

2. Centralise and automate data

With data often spread across HRIS platforms, travel systems and spreadsheets, companies need integrated tools to quickly assess risk, respond to disruptions, and support employee wellbeing.

3. Audit assignments and projects

Businesses need to re-evaluate current and future assignments, addressing: Are the moves still viable? Are employees still willing to go? Can the destination change due to tariffs or security concerns?

4. Improve travel briefings

Employees need to be better prepared for what to expect at borders - what to say, what not to say, and what documentation they must carry.

5. Update cost estimates

Existing cost models may be outdated given the rise in tariffs, taxes, and processing delays. Review cost projections and build in financial buffers for added resilience.

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